Bitcoin Slides Below $108,000 Amid Renewed Market Caution
Bitcoin (BTC) began the week under pressure, slipping below the $108,000 level following a 3.5 percent weekly decline. The move reflects renewed risk aversion after U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments about restricting Nvidia’s advanced AI chips to domestic customers tempered optimism over easing U.S.–China trade tensions.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States also recorded almost $800 million in weekly outflows, signaling declining institutional appetite for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. The combination of political uncertainty, macro-level caution, and weakening ETF demand has left investors reassessing Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
Trump’s Chip Remarks Offset Trade-Talk Optimism
In a Sunday interview on CBS’s 60 Minutes and subsequent comments aboard Air Force One, President Trump said that Nvidia’s top-end Blackwell chips should be available “only for U.S. customers.” The statement rattled global markets, which had reacted positively to recent signs of trade de-escalation between Washington and Beijing.
Trump’s remarks effectively reversed part of the relief rally that had emerged from improved diplomatic dialogue between the world’s two largest economies. Traders interpreted his stance as a signal of continuing strategic rivalry, prompting a mild risk-off mood that pressured equities and digital assets alike.
Shutdown Deadlock Adds to Investor Anxiety
The broader market tone was further undermined by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now entering its 34th day. The congressional standoff over a Republican-backed funding bill has amplified concerns about policy paralysis and economic uncertainty heading into the holiday quarter.
Crypto traders often interpret political gridlock as a negative signal for liquidity and investor sentiment. “When Washington freezes, speculative assets usually cool first,” noted market analyst Rachel Nguyen of Apex Trading Desk.
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Institutional ETF Outflows Weaken Momentum
Data from SoSoValue showed that U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $789.95 million in outflows last week, reversing the positive inflows seen earlier in October. Analysts view this as a warning sign of fading institutional conviction, particularly after several weeks of record inflows in September.
ETF outflows tend to reflect short-term repositioning by large investors. If redemptions continue, analysts say Bitcoin could face additional selling pressure as funds rebalance portfolios toward defensive assets such as Treasuries and gold.
Historical Trends Suggest Seasonal Strength in November
Despite recent weakness, historical data offers some comfort to bullish investors. CoinGlass statistics reveal that November has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest month, averaging gains of 42.3 percent. In addition, the fourth quarter as a whole delivers an average return of 78.4 percent, making it the cryptocurrency’s most profitable period on record.
However, analysts caution that past performance may not guarantee a similar rebound this year. “Macro conditions are different now — institutional flows, regulation, and geopolitical factors all interact in new ways,” explained Marcus Lee of Digital Horizons Analytics.
Technical Analysis: Bears Regain Short-Term Control
Technically, Bitcoin’s decline followed rejection at the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level, drawn from the April 7 low of $74,508 to the October 6 high of $126,199. BTC failed to hold above $115,137 and retreated to test the 61.8 percent Fibonacci level near $106,453.
Momentum indicators support a cautious outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 41, below the neutral 50 mark, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram shows narrowing green bars — both signaling waning bullish momentum.
Outlook: Cautious Optimism Amid Volatility
Should Bitcoin maintain support around $106,453, a rebound toward the 50-day exponential moving average near $112,500 remains plausible. A decisive close below $106,000, however, could trigger a deeper slide toward $102,000 — the October 10 low that previously acted as a key demand zone.
For now, traders remain divided. Bulls highlight seasonal strength and long-term adoption trends, while bears focus on tightening liquidity and geopolitics. “Bitcoin is caught between macro headwinds and its own historical resilience,” said analyst Nguyen. “The next few weeks will determine which force prevails.”
