An Unexpected Lead in 2025
While bitcoin is renowned for its explosive growth, it has surprisingly been outpaced by gold in 2025. According to data from financial strategist Charlie Bilello, gold has seen a 29.3% gain year-to-date, narrowly surpassing bitcoin’s 25% rise. This marks a significant moment, as it is the first time since Bilello began his records that gold and bitcoin have held the top two positions in the annual asset class rankings. This year’s performance highlights the dynamic nature of markets, where even established trends can see temporary reversals.
The Broader Market Picture
The performance of other major asset classes in 2025 has been more muted. Emerging market stocks have posted a 15.6% gain, while the Nasdaq 100 is up 12.7% and U.S. large caps have risen 9.4%. In stark contrast, U.S. mid and small caps have seen minimal gains of just 0.2% and 0.8% respectively. This landscape of modest returns across traditional equities further emphasizes the remarkable year-to-date performance of both gold and bitcoin, which have proven to be the most resilient and profitable assets in the current macro climate.
Bitcoin’s Unprecedented Cumulative Returns
Looking at the longer term, the narrative shifts dramatically in favor of bitcoin. Since 2011, bitcoin has delivered an almost incomprehensible cumulative return of 38,897,420%. This figure is not just impressive; it’s a paradigm shift. Over the same period, gold’s cumulative return is a comparatively modest 126%, placing it well behind other assets like the Nasdaq 100 (1,101%) and U.S. large caps (559%). Bitcoin’s total return over the last 14 years has eclipsed gold’s by over 308,000 times, underscoring its unparalleled position as a growth asset.
The Power of Annualized Gains
When the returns are measured on an annualized basis, bitcoin’s dominance remains clear. It has delivered a staggering 141.7% average annual gain since 2011. This dwarfs the annualized returns of all other asset classes in the dataset. For instance, the Nasdaq 100 has an 18.6% average annual gain, U.S. large caps have 13.8%, and gold has a mere 5.7%. While gold is often praised for its stability and use as a hedge against inflation, its rate of appreciation is orders of magnitude slower than bitcoin’s exponential climb.
The Ultimate Store of Value?
Renowned trader Peter Brandt has weighed in on the ongoing debate, positioning bitcoin as the “ultimate store of value.” While acknowledging gold’s historical merits, Brandt believes bitcoin’s unique characteristics—namely its scarcity and decentralization—make it superior in the long run. His comments reflect a growing sentiment among financial experts that bitcoin is not just a speculative asset but a legitimate contender to surpass traditional hedges like gold over time, offering a more robust alternative to a declining U.S. dollar purchasing power.
Resilience in a Volatile Macro Backdrop
Bitcoin’s ability to maintain a price above six figures in 2025 and rank as a top-performing asset demonstrates its resilience in a volatile economic environment. Despite temporary dips, its performance this year confirms its staying power and its ability to attract significant capital. The market is now looking for a potential retest of the year’s peak near $123,000.
What’s Next for Bitcoin and Gold
The future trajectory for both assets will likely be influenced by upcoming macroeconomic data and the overall risk appetite across equities and commodities. Long-term holders of bitcoin are bolstered by its historical performance, while gold investors continue to rely on its stability. The ongoing competition between these two assets for the top spot is a key narrative for the rest of the year, with many eyes on whether bitcoin can reclaim its year-to-date lead.
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