Bitcoin Rises Again After Market Fear Reaches New Heights
Even though the cryptocurrency market is still very volatile and full of fear, Bitcoin rose toward $69,000. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 8 right now, which means that investors are very scared. People still feel very bad about it.
The global crypto market capitalization went up about 4.3% to $2.36 trillion, but this is after a huge loss of almost $2 trillion. This kind of situation makes people less hopeful about the recovery. Confidence is weak.
Prediction Markets Show That People Are Still Doubtful
Traders on the Myriad prediction platform think there is a 55% chance that Bitcoin could drop to $55,000 before rising again to $84,000. Those odds show that there is still a lot of uncertainty about where the asset will go next. Expectations are still mixed.
Standard Chartered, on the other hand, cut its long-term Bitcoin target from $300,000 to about $100,000 and said prices could drop to $50,000 first. Changes to forecasts often affect how institutions position themselves. People are becoming more cautious.
ETF Outflows Signal Investor Nervousness
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw outflows of about $410 million, which means that even people who usually buy Bitcoin are cutting back on their investments. A lot of withdrawals often make the market more volatile. Movement of capital is important.
When red candlestick patterns are common on charts, traders often put risk management ahead of aggressive accumulation strategies. Changes in behavior can make downward pressure stronger. The markets move quickly.
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Inflation Data Could Shape Near-Term Direction
The next consumer price index data is expected to show inflation close to 2.5% year-over-year, which could affect a lot of risky assets. If the temperature goes up, Bitcoin could get closer to $60,000. Macro signals still have an effect.
On the other hand, lower inflation could give bulls a little breathing room by making people more willing to take risks in the financial markets. More and more, economic indicators affect how people feel about crypto. Traders are waiting for things to become clear.
Technical Strength Masks Weak Structure
Bitcoin went up from about $68,248 to an intraday high of about $69,450 before settling down a little. The move looks good on the surface, but a closer look shows that it has structural problems. Looks can be deceiving.
The Average Directional Index is currently around 51.3, which means that there is a strong trend going in either direction. If the reading is above 50, it usually means that the trend is strong. Bears have the upper hand when it comes to momentum.
Moving Averages and RSI Confirm Downtrend
The Relative Strength Index is close to 35, which is firmly in bearish territory and well below the neutral midpoint of 50. Before saying that momentum has changed, traders usually look for higher readings. There is still no confirmation.
The 50-day exponential moving average also trades below the 200-day average, which is a classic bearish pattern. This kind of alignment shows that the recent price action is weaker than the longer-term performance. Structure is important.
Tactical Opportunities for Short-Term Traders
Conditions seem a little better on shorter timeframes, with the 4-hour ADX around 20.6 showing that there isn’t a clear trend. Neutral RSI readings around 53.6 also show that momentum is balanced. Tactical trading is now possible.
But analysts say that rallies in a larger downtrend often run into strong resistance quickly. Bulls probably need to close above $80,000 for a while to confirm that a reversal is possible. It is still wise to be careful until then.
