In a landmark decision that has sent shockwaves through Thailand, the Constitutional Court has removed suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from her position. The ruling found her guilty of ethical misconduct related to a controversial phone call with Cambodia’s former leader, Hun Sen. This marks the fifth time since 2008 that a Thai prime minister has been ousted by a court, a pattern that underscores the kingdom’s persistent political instability. The verdict has plunged the nation into a period of prolonged political uncertainty and raises the possibility of a snap election.

The Details of the Ethical Misconduct

The nine-judge court, which is seen as aligned with Thailand’s conservative royalist establishment, ruled that Paetongtarn had “seriously violated” the ethical standards required of a prime minister. The violation stemmed from a leaked conversation in June where she discussed a deadly border conflict with Hun Sen. During the call, she was heard using familiar language, calling him “uncle,” and criticizing a senior Thai army commander. The court determined that her actions had put her personal interests above those of the nation and had damaged the country’s reputation.

A Broader Context: The Shinawatra Family’s Struggles

This ruling is a significant blow to the Shinawatra family’s political influence. It is the second of three high-stakes court decisions against Paetongtarn and her father, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. While Thaksin was recently cleared of a charge of insulting the monarchy, he still faces a separate court case regarding his stay in a hospital wing instead of prison. Analysts suggest that Thailand’s conservative establishment could use this remaining case as leverage to force Thaksin’s Pheu Thai Party into a less powerful role within a new coalition.

Potential Political Scenarios

The ousting of Paetongtarn has created a vacuum that needs to be filled. Under Thailand’s constitution, only politicians who were nominated for prime minister before the 2023 elections can form a new government. Pheu Thai has one remaining eligible candidate, Chaikasem Nitisiri, a loyalist of Thaksin. Other potential candidates come from conservative parties, including Anutin Charnvirakul of the Bhumjaithai Party and Prayuth Chan-o-cha, who led the 2014 coup.

The Rise of Bhumjaithai’s Candidate

According to political analysts, Anutin Charnvirakul appears to be the most viable candidate for the prime minister role. Despite his party having fewer MPs than Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai is believed to have the backing of both the palace and the Senate. This support could allow Anutin to broker a deal that keeps Pheu Thai in a coalition government, albeit in a junior partner role. Such an arrangement could potentially stabilize the country for a period, preventing the need for an immediate snap election.

The Risk of a Snap Election

If legislators are unable to agree on a new government, a snap election may be unavoidable. This would further prolong the political uncertainty and could lead to more instability. The current situation highlights the deep divisions within Thai politics, where the court system is often seen as an extension of the conservative establishment’s efforts to curb the influence of the Shinawatra family.

Paetongtarn’s Response and Call for Unity

Speaking after the verdict, Paetongtarn insisted that her intentions were to benefit the country and its people, not for personal gain. She called for all political parties, both government and opposition, to work together to build political stability and prevent another turning point. Her statement emphasizes the need for unity in a fractured political landscape.

Looking Ahead

The political future of Thailand remains uncertain. The outcome of the remaining case against Thaksin Shinawatra and the ability of political parties to form a new coalition will be key determinants of the country’s stability. With a new prime minister to be selected, the coming weeks will reveal whether Thailand can navigate this crisis without succumbing to further political turmoil.

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