Dogecoin (DOGE) is currently experiencing a dip, edging lower by over 4% on Wednesday for the third consecutive day, as its bullish momentum from last week’s 37% gains begins to decline. Despite significant whale accumulation, the meme coin is struggling at a crucial resistance level, leading to a short-term volatility spike.
Whale Accumulation vs. Retail Offloading
On-chain data from Santiment reveals a notable divergence in investor behaviour. Large investors, commonly referred to as “whales” (holding over 10 million DOGE), have continued their buying spree, accumulating an impressive 122.59 billion tokens, which accounts for 81% of Dogecoin’s total circulating supply (150.21 billion). Whale holdings even reached an all-time high of 122.69 billion DOGE on Friday. This massive control over the circulating supply positions large investors as key drivers of DOGE’s price movement.
In stark contrast, retail investors (holding less than 10,000 DOGE tokens) have maintained a flat holding pattern after an offloading spree that occurred between July 3 and July 15. This suggests that retail investors may have missed out on capitalising on DOGE’s recent recovery, reflecting a missed opportunity or a cautious sentiment among smaller holders.
Technical Outlook and Key Levels
Dogecoin’s recent recovery has hit a significant resistance level. After failing to decisively cross the $0.2867 resistance on Monday, DOGE’s declining trend is currently retesting the $0.2590 level, which is near the May 11 high of $0.2597 and now acts as a crucial support. A decisive close below this support could extend the decline towards the $0.2145 support level, a price point last tested on July 15.
Technical indicators on the daily chart also suggest a loss in bullish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) and its signal line are risking a declining trend with a potential crossover event, as the intensity of green histogram bars diminishes. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined to 82 on the daily chart, indicating a decrease in buying pressure, although conditions remain overbought.
Despite these short-term headwinds, a potentially bullish technical pattern is emerging. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has crossed above the 100-day EMA, highlighting a short-term recovery that has surpassed the medium-term trend. The rising 50-day EMA is also inching closer to the 200-day EMA, hinting at the formation of a “Golden Cross” pattern. A Golden Cross, where a shorter-term moving average crosses above a longer-term one, is generally considered a bullish signal indicating the potential for a long-term bull market. If DOGE can exceed the overhead resistance at $0.2867, the uptrend could extend towards the $0.3143 level, last tested on February 2. This suggests that while Dogecoin is facing immediate resistance, the underlying technical structure points to a potential for future recovery if buying pressure returns.
