Bitcoin’s Evolving Investment Thesis
In its nascent years, Bitcoin was predominantly perceived as an extremely volatile asset, largely unsuitable for a buy-and-hold investment strategy. Instead, it was often considered a high-risk, short-term trading vehicle, appealing primarily to market participants with a significant appetite for risk and a strong stomach for rapid price fluctuations. Fast-forward to 2025, and while Bitcoin certainly retains its capacity to deliver substantial gains or losses in a remarkably short fashion, a profound shift in perception has occurred.
The largest digital currency is now increasingly being viewed through a long-term lens, a significant validation of its broader investment thesis. This evolving perspective is highly constructive for investment vehicles such as Bitcoin ETFs, including the CoinShares Bitcoin Fund (BRRR). The changing sentiment indicates that a growing number of investors are willing to display “diamond hands,” a term signifying a strong commitment to holding an asset through volatility, rather than being easily shaken out at the first sign of weakness. This maturation in investor behaviour suggests a deeper understanding and belief in Bitcoin’s enduring value proposition beyond mere speculative trading.
ETFs Bolstering Bitcoin’s Long-Term Case
The emergence and increasing accessibility of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) like the CoinShares Bitcoin Fund (BRRR) have played a pivotal role in bolstering the case for Bitcoin as a viable long-term holding. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, in particular, have significantly simplified the objective of long-term Bitcoin ownership for a much broader investor base. Prior to these regulated investment products, many market participants, especially those accustomed to traditional financial instruments, were understandably skittish about directly acquiring and securing cryptocurrencies.
The complexities of setting up digital wallets, managing private keys, and navigating unregulated exchanges often acted as significant barriers to entry. ETFs, however, provide a familiar and regulated wrapper, allowing investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin through their existing brokerage accounts, thereby increasing access to an asset class that was once perceived as niche and overly complex. This enhanced accessibility has been instrumental in attracting a new wave of long-term holders, contributing to Bitcoin’s transition from a speculative asset to a more widely accepted investment vehicle.
Data Confirming Long-Term Holding Trends
Compelling data now unequivocally confirms that a growing number of investors are no longer solely engaged in short-term speculation with Bitcoin, nor are they abandoning their positions at the first sign of market pullbacks. Research from CoinShares provides powerful evidence of this shifting trend. According to their analysis, “Looking at ownership trends over the past decade, the number of investors holding Bitcoin for 155 days or more is now at its highest level since 2015.” While the motivations for holding Bitcoin back in 2015 might have differed from today’s, the broader trend strongly suggests that investors are increasingly adopting a long-term holding approach.
This indicates a fundamental change in how Bitcoin is perceived and utilised within investment portfolios. Currently, more than 74% of investors are holding their Bitcoin for over 155 days, a clear testament to its growing acceptance as a store of value. This sustained holding behaviour is a crucial indicator of market maturity and investor confidence in Bitcoin’s enduring value proposition.
Declining Bitcoin Supply on Exchanges
Further confirmation of the prevailing “HODL” sentiment among Bitcoin investors comes from the significant decline in the amount of Bitcoin held on cryptocurrency exchanges. The volume of Bitcoin available on these centralised trading platforms peaked several years ago, reaching its highest point in June 2022, when approximately 18% of the total Bitcoin supply (equivalent to 3.45 million BTC, valued at US$383 billion at the time) was held on exchanges.
Since then, there has been a consistent and notable reduction in this figure. CoinShares data indicates that this share has now declined to just 1465 billion worth of Bitcoin from exchange holdings. This trend suggests that investors are increasingly moving their Bitcoin off exchanges and into cold storage or private wallets, indicating a long-term holding intention rather than a readiness to sell. Similarly, the volume of Bitcoin held in OTC (over-the-counter) desk wallets has also fallen to near zero, further reinforcing the narrative of decreasing liquid supply available for immediate trading.
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Rising Volume of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products
Interestingly, while the direct supply of Bitcoin on centralised exchanges has been declining, the volume of Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs), including ETFs such as BRRR, is simultaneously on the rise. This seemingly contradictory trend is, in fact, a positive development for Bitcoin at large. CoinShares analysts believe that “this shift does not undermine the Bitcoin network itself. Rather, we think it reflects a diversification in trading mechanisms beyond centralised crypto exchanges.”
This indicates that investors are increasingly finding alternative, regulated, and often more convenient ways to gain exposure to Bitcoin. The growth in ETP volume suggests that institutional and retail investors who prefer traditional investment vehicles are actively participating in the Bitcoin market through these regulated products. This diversification of trading mechanisms enhances market liquidity and accessibility, allowing a broader range of capital to flow into the Bitcoin ecosystem without necessarily increasing the readily available supply on spot exchanges. It signifies a maturation of the market infrastructure, providing more avenues for investment beyond direct token ownership.
Bitcoin as a Store of Value and Inflation Hedge
The increasing tendency of investors to hold Bitcoin for extended periods strongly supports its evolving role as a legitimate store of value and a potential hedge against inflation. In times of economic uncertainty and currency depreciation, investors often seek assets that can preserve or even grow their purchasing power. Bitcoin’s decentralised nature, finite supply (capped at 21 million coins), and resistance to censorship make it an attractive alternative to traditional fiat currencies, which can be subject to inflationary pressures and governmental control.
The shift in investor behaviour, where a significant majority are holding Bitcoin for over 155 days, indicates a growing belief in its long-term value proposition as “digital gold.” This perspective positions Bitcoin not just as a speculative asset but as a fundamental component of a diversified portfolio designed to protect wealth against macroeconomic headwinds. The validation of this store-of-value thesis is crucial for Bitcoin’s continued institutional adoption and its integration into mainstream financial planning.
Bitcoin’s Maturing Investment Landscape
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s investment landscape has undergone a profound transformation. What was once primarily viewed as a highly volatile speculative asset is now increasingly recognised as a legitimate long-term holding. This shift is evidenced by compelling data showing a significant increase in the number of investors holding Bitcoin for extended periods and a notable decline in the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges.
The emergence and widespread adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs have played a pivotal role in this evolution, making Bitcoin more accessible and palatable for a broader investor base, including those in traditional finance. The rising volume of Bitcoin exchange-traded products, even as direct exchange holdings decrease, reflects a healthy diversification of trading mechanisms. Ultimately, these trends underscore a maturing market where Bitcoin’s fundamental value proposition as a store of value and an inflation hedge is gaining widespread acceptance. This ongoing evolution positions Bitcoin for continued growth and stability, solidifying its role as a cornerstone of the future digital economy.
