Bitcoin has officially lost the $103,600 support level, triggered by recent and shocking geopolitical developments. The U.S. military reportedly launched attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, sending immediate widespread panic and risk-off behavior across global financial markets. The cryptocurrency space was no exception, as Bitcoin, which had maintained stability above crucial support for weeks, experienced a rapid sell-off, with fear gripping traders and investors alike. This abrupt breakdown signals a significant shift in market sentiment, putting the broader digital asset ecosystem on edge.

Shift in Sentiment: Bulls Lose Control

This recent breakdown in Bitcoin’s price definitively marks a shift in sentiment within the cryptocurrency market. The bulls have visibly lost control of short-term momentum, indicating a weakening of their influence on price direction. Consequently, the broader market is now bracing for a potential drop below the critical $100,000 psychological level, a key support historically. With no immediate signs of relief on the horizon, the persistent selling pressure may continue unless a strong and decisive demand emerges near established range lows, signaling a precarious period for digital asset values.

Bitcoin Dominance Breaks Previous High

Amidst the market turmoil, top analyst Carl Runefelt has highlighted a significant phenomenon: Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has just surpassed its previous high. This critical indicator reveals that even as Bitcoin experiences price declines, altcoins are suffering under even greater pressure, indicating a disproportionate impact. This concentration of capital in Bitcoin can be interpreted as a flight to relative safety within the crypto ecosystem, as investors seek refuge in the market’s largest and most liquid asset, but it simultaneously underscores a growing uncertainty and a marked lack of confidence in higher-risk alternative tokens.

Bitcoin Faces Pivotal Test Near $100K

Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture, actively flirting with a breakdown below the pivotal $100,000 psychological mark. After weeks of maintaining its position above this level, the market is now showing palpable signs of fatigue, grappling with intense selling pressure. Yet, despite these challenges, bulls have managed to defend the $100K threshold for now, suggesting it might be forming a new base of support. A sustained hold above this level could potentially trigger a sharp recovery, potentially reigniting momentum towards previous highs, making this a closely watched point.

Macroeconomic Headwinds Persist

The current macroeconomic backdrop remains highly volatile, adding layers of complexity to the cryptocurrency market. Rising U.S. Treasury yields continue to exert pressure by tightening liquidity conditions, while the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady introduces further uncertainty regarding future monetary policy. Meanwhile, escalating conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the recent U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, have injected significant fear across global markets. Historically, Bitcoin has responded to geopolitical risk with mixed behavior, sometimes acting as a safe haven and at other times following broader market risk aversion, making its future response unpredictable.

Dominance Confirms Growing Caution

Adding to the complexity, Carl Runefelt’s recent observation that Bitcoin Dominance has just broken above its previous high is a powerful confirmation of growing caution in the market. This metric signals that investor capital is increasingly concentrating on Bitcoin, while altcoins are suffering heavier losses. The shift clearly reflects a preference for perceived relative safety over speculative risk among investors. Whether this significant capital rotation will ultimately propel another leg up for Bitcoin or, conversely, mark the commencement of a broader downtrend for the entire crypto market, remains a critical question to be answered in the coming days, keeping market participants on high alert.

Price Analysis: Bulls Defend Critical Support

From a price analysis perspective, Bitcoin is currently trading at $102,506, hovering just above the key support zone at $100,000. The chart clearly shows BTC’s repeated failure to break through the $109,300 resistance level, which has resulted in a gradual decline and increased selling pressure. The $103,600 area, which previously acted as a significant support, has now been lost, definitively confirming weakness in short-term bullish momentum. On the 3-day chart, the price remarkably remains above all major moving averages—the 50, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Averages—signaling that the macro trend for Bitcoin is still intact, despite immediate pressures.

The Battle Ahead: $100K Critical Juncture

The current price action suggests that Bitcoin is forming a new local range between $100,000 and $109,000. If the bulls can successfully manage to hold $100K and subsequently push the price back above $103,600 in the coming sessions, a retest of the range highs may follow, indicating a potential recovery. Conversely, a sustained move below $100K could open the door for a sharper correction towards the $94K–$95K zone or even $92,000 in the short term. Market watchers are meticulously monitoring this critical level as the intense battle between bulls and bears intensifies, poised to dictate Bitcoin’s immediate future trajectory.