Former Bitmex CEO and crypto macro strategist Arthur Hayes believes a seemingly subtle financial manoeuvre by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could be the catalyst for Bitcoin’s next explosive price surge. Hayes highlighted reports that the BOJ began supplying U.S. dollars against pooled collateral on July 17, framing this discreet liquidity injection as a “pivotal macro development for crypto markets” and declaring, “This is huge.”
BOJ’s “Quiet” Liquidity Injection and Hayes’ Macro Thesis
Hayes interprets the BOJ’s action as a quiet yet significant liquidity injection, described by some analysts as a “technical adjustment that says more than any press release ever could.” This aligns directly with his 2023 essay, Shikata Ga Nai, in which he predicted that central banks would inevitably be forced to restart the “fiat liquidity gusher” to stabilise financial systems under pressure, thereby propelling Bitcoin much higher.
Hayes views the BOJ’s move as the opening gambit in a new phase of global monetary easing. He argues that as trust in fiat currencies erodes due to such expansive monetary policies, capital will increasingly flow into scarce, decentralised assets like Bitcoin. This narrative suggests that while the BOJ’s action may appear minor on the surface, its underlying implications for global liquidity and confidence in traditional financial systems are profound, making it a critical macro signal for crypto investors.
High-Profile Trader Dave Portnoy Ditches XRP Early, Misses Millions
In a classic case of “selling too soon,” high-profile trader and Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy recently revealed he sold his XRP holdings at $2.40, just two weeks before the digital asset reached a new all-time high of $3.66. Portnoy’s early exit meant he missed out on millions of dollars as XRP subsequently surged by more than 60%.
The “Circle Factor” and Portnoy’s Regret
In a July 18 post on X, Portnoy explained that his decision to sell was based on advice from the person who initially told him to buy XRP. This individual suggested that XRP had peaked and faced significant competition from Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin. Circle has indeed been expanding its services, with its Circle Payment Network (CPN) entering the cross-border transfer field, potentially creating competition for Ripple.
Portnoy candidly expressed his regret over the premature sale, stating, “I sold XRP back when it went to $2.40 because the guy who told me to buy it told me that I should sell it because he thought Circle would compete with them; he was unhappy with it. It’s up 60% since I sold it and I would have made millions and I want to cry.”
A Pattern of Early Exits
This isn’t the first time Portnoy has exited a cryptocurrency position prematurely. In 2020, he famously sold his Bitcoin holdings just a week after buying them, a decision he later regretted. In February 2024, he again expressed remorse that Barstool had not invested $10 million in Bitcoin. Despite once positioning himself as the “leader of the XRP army,” Portnoy confirmed in his latest video that he no longer holds any XRP.
XRP has cemented its position as the third-largest digital asset by market capitalisation, matching and surging past its previous all-time high of $3.40 on July 17. Since then, it has largely traded above $3.40, indicating potential for a continued uptrend. Portnoy’s experience serves as a cautionary tale in the volatile and often unpredictable world of cryptocurrency trading, where short-term sentiment can lead to missing out on significant long-term gains.
