Solana’s Struggle at Key Resistance Levels
Solana’s recent recovery back toward $200 has renewed speculation about whether its bullish cycle can continue. Despite regaining strength over the past month, the token remains confined beneath a powerful resistance zone near $250 — a level that has repeatedly capped its upward momentum. Each attempt to breach this area has been met with sharp rejection, raising doubts about the sustainability of Solana’s latest rally.
After several months of consolidation, Solana’s chart structure now forms a descending parallel channel, signaling exhaustion among buyers. While the broader crypto market remains optimistic, Solana’s inability to secure a weekly close above $250 suggests that the token’s short-term upside may be limited unless strong volume confirms a breakout.
Technical Signals Indicate a Cautious Outlook
Solana has maintained a position above the crucial $120 horizontal support since December 2023, with only a brief dip to $95 in April that was quickly reversed. Despite this resilience, recent price behavior has created lower highs, indicating fading momentum. The $250 zone has emerged as the most significant resistance, preventing SOL from revisiting its previous all-time high near $296.
On the weekly chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the neutral 50 mark, while the MACD has flashed a bearish crossover. These technical conditions point to waning buying pressure, and unless momentum reverses soon, a deeper retracement could unfold.
Descending Channel Signals Bearish Continuation
The daily chart reinforces the idea that Solana may be entering a corrective phase. The asset trades within an ascending channel that often develops during market corrections. Price action in the lower portion of the channel suggests that sellers are gradually regaining control, increasing the probability of a breakdown toward lower support levels.
If Solana fails to hold the $185–$190 midrange support, analysts expect the next key level around $130 to come into play. A decisive break below this region could expose SOL to further downside, potentially testing the $100 psychological barrier.
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Market Structure Suggests Completed Cycle
Long-term wave analysis indicates that Solana might have already completed its five-wave impulse structure that began in late 2022. If accurate, the token is now progressing through a corrective A-B-C formation, implying that the current bounce represents part of a larger retracement. The projected C-wave target lies between $59 and $69, supported by Fibonacci retracement levels that align with the 0.786 support zone.
This scenario supports a medium-term bearish outlook, with analysts predicting that Solana could enter an extended consolidation phase before establishing a new bullish foundation.
Key Levels Traders Should Watch
For bullish traders, the $250 resistance remains the most critical barrier to monitor. A confirmed breakout and weekly close above this level would invalidate much of the bearish setup and reopen the path toward $300 and new all-time highs. Conversely, a sustained rejection at or below $200 could accelerate the decline toward $130 and potentially deeper levels if selling pressure intensifies.
The intersection of the midrange support at $185 and the lower trendline of the channel will likely determine Solana’s short-term direction. Failure to maintain this structure could confirm the end of its current bullish phase.
Indicators Reflect Market Indecision
Momentum indicators across multiple timeframes reflect mixed market sentiment. While volume profiles show accumulation at lower levels, volatility remains subdued. The RSI’s failure to reclaim bullish territory reinforces a cautious stance among investors, while the MACD’s bearish divergence continues to pressure near-term price action.
Institutional activity around Solana has slowed compared to early 2025, suggesting that large holders may be waiting for a more attractive reentry point after the recent rally.
Correction Before the Next Uptrend
Solana’s long-term prospects remain strong, but technical signals now favor a near-term correction before another sustainable rally can begin. Analysts agree that unless the token decisively reclaims and holds above the $250 resistance, its 2025 cycle high may already be in place.
Should a breakdown occur, Solana could find its next major accumulation zone between $60 and $70 — levels historically associated with previous cycle resets. From there, renewed demand and ecosystem growth could set the stage for Solana’s next major bull phase heading into 2026.
