Macro Backdrop Points to Constructive Conditions

Coinbase’s Q4 2025 institutional report keeps a cautious-but-positive stance on crypto markets. The Global M2 Money Supply Index begins the quarter supportive for risk assets. Easing financial conditions historically improve liquidity for longer-duration, high-volatility exposures like Bitcoin. Potential Federal Reserve cuts could redirect sidelined cash from money markets back toward digital assets.

Crash Anatomy Highlights Leverage and Thin Books

Analysts attribute the October 10 selloff to excessive leverage colliding with shallow order books. Auto-deleveraging at several venues constrained market‑maker shorts and drained liquidity further. Forced unwinds amplified downside wicks and widened spreads across major pairs. As the cascade ended, prices stabilized, but participants remained wary of renewed shocks.

Liquidity and Market Structure Are Normalizing

Into the weekend, depth gradually rebuilt as market makers re-opened inventory. Basis spreads and funding rates moderated toward pre‑event ranges. Volumes improved as hedging demand cooled and passive flows returned. Still, Coinbase flags fragility while macro crosscurrents and event risk persist.

Recommended Article:Bitcoin Climbs Above $110,000 as Investors Regain Confidence

Survey Shows Near‑Term Optimism Among Allocators

Coinbase and Glassnode polled 124 investors across institutions and sophisticated non‑institutions. Roughly 67% reported a constructive three‑to‑six‑month outlook for Bitcoin. Respondents cited supportive liquidity, regulatory clarity progress, and treasury adoption. A minority expected chop but still favored staged accumulation strategies into dips.

Institutions See Late‑Cycle Signals, But Remain Engaged

Among institutions, 45% characterized conditions as late‑stage bull, versus 27% of non‑institutions. That divergence reflects differing mandates, risk budgets, and hedging access. Even so, allocators emphasized disciplined sizing rather than outright de‑risking. Many plan to rotate from passive exposure into basis, options, and relative‑value trades.

Digital‑Asset Treasuries Keep Accumulating BTC and ETH

Coinbase highlights treasury firms as steady structural buyers in 2025. Their share of circulating supply has been slowly trending higher. Management teams prioritize liquid, large‑cap assets with deep derivatives coverage. The report cautions that equity underperformance poses long‑run business‑model risks to some treasuries.

Notable Treasury Moves Reinforce the Trend

Tom Lee’s BitMine reportedly added 104,336 ETH, lifting holdings to about 3.03 million ETH. At prevailing prices, that stash approximates US$12.2 billion in nominal value. Separately, Michael Saylor’s strategy acquired 168 BTC around US$112,051 per coin. He posted a 26% year‑to‑date BTC yield update, underscoring continued conviction.

Spot Levels Frame the Short‑Term Setup

Bitcoin reclaimed US$109,000 and recently hovered near US$111,000, a pivotal level. Maintaining acceptance above that zone supports a constructive higher‑low structure. Below, traders watch liquid areas built during the deleveraging flush. Meanwhile, Ethereum lingers under US$4,000 after an 11% monthly pullback.

Outlook and Risk Considerations Into Year‑End

Coinbase expects two additional Fed cuts could aid risk appetite into Q4. A supportive M2 backdrop and rebuilding liquidity favor gradual upside skew. Key risks include renewed macro stress, policy surprises, and exchange microstructure shocks. Positioning discipline, staggered entries, and dynamic hedging remain core institutional playbooks.