At the prestigious St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF-2025), Igor Sechin, the influential chief executive of Russian oil giant Rosneft, delivered a stark assessment of the global financial landscape. Sechin argued that U.S. policies are actively eroding the strength of the dollar, a trend he believes is fueling a significant and growing demand for alternative assets, including gold, cryptocurrencies, and local currencies. His remarks underscore a crucial pivot in global finance, as major economic players seek to diversify their holdings and reduce reliance on a single dominant currency, signaling a potential reshaping of international monetary systems.

Energy Spending Questioned

Speaking at an oil-and-gas panel during SPIEF-2025, Igor Sechin critically questioned the efficacy of global energy spending over the past decade. He argued that despite a massive investment of “roughly USD 10 trillion” over the last ten years in the pursuit of net-zero emissions, the results have been rather modest. Sechin highlighted that solar and wind power’s combined share of worldwide generation has only increased by four percentage points, reaching “about six percent.” He further pointed out the imbalance, where another USD 2 trillion is earmarked for renewables this year, while fossil-fuel projects, which still satisfy four-fifths of global energy demand, receive barely half that amount in investment.

Defence Buildup Drives Rare-Earth Scramble

Linking the critical issue of energy security to global mineral supply chains, the Rosneft CEO emphasized the significant demand for rare-earth elements driven by military advancements. He pointed out that a single F-35 fighter jet requires more than 400 kilograms of rare-earth elements, underscoring the immense material intensity of modern defense technologies. Sechin specifically listed recent contracts signed by Ukraine in this field and issued a stern warning that rising military budgets across the NATO alliance could lead to tightened access to critical metals, subsequently placing further cost pressure on the economies of member states and creating strategic vulnerabilities.

Deficits, Tariffs, and a Softer Dollar

Turning to macroeconomics, Igor Sechin argued that Washington’s widening budget gap has already translated into concrete negative consequences for global trade and consumer prices. He noted that this fiscal strain has led to steeper import tariffs, increased supply-chain friction, and higher consumer prices. While observing that “Protectionist steps may not hurt China immediately,” he cautioned that “they distort global trade flows.” Sechin concluded that the combined effect of fiscal strain and the imposition of sanctions has significantly weakened confidence in the US dollar, resulting in a surplus of greenbacks in circulation and complicating monetary management both domestically and internationally.

Alternative Assets Gain Momentum

According to Sechin, investors are reacting to these macroeconomic shifts by actively diversifying their portfolios into hard assets and digital tokens. He cited compelling industry data indicating that the total transaction volume on major crypto exchanges has multiplied tenfold in just five years, surpassing USD 18 trillion. This dramatic surge underscores a significant shift in investment behavior. Concurrently, several U.S. states have granted precious metals legal-tender status, and bilateral trade deals settled in national currencies now cover a growing share of cross-border flows between Russia, China, India, and their partners in the Middle East, further signaling a move away from dollar dominance.

Fossil Fuels Remain Central to Supply Security

Despite increasing global commitments to climate goals, Igor Sechin asserted that worldwide oil-and-gas demand remains resilient and robust. He indicated that expected production increases by the OPEC+ group next year are primarily intended to offset under-investment elsewhere, especially as ongoing sanctions continue to limit crucial oil exports from Iran and Venezuela. Sechin contended that energy markets will inevitably remain highly sensitive to geopolitical shocks for as long as policy makers prioritize short-term “headlines over balanced resource planning,” highlighting the continued critical role of fossil fuels in ensuring global supply security amidst political volatility.

Implications for Global Financial System

Igor Sechin’s remarks from SPIEF-2025 carry significant implications for the global financial system. His assessment of the dollar’s weakening, driven by U.S. policies, suggests a fragmentation of the international monetary order. The increasing demand for alternative assets like gold and cryptocurrencies, alongside a rise in trade settled in local currencies, points towards a more multipolar financial world. This shift could impact global trade dynamics, central bank reserves, and the overall stability of the international financial architecture, urging a re-evaluation of long-held assumptions about currency dominance and investment strategies in an evolving geopolitical landscape.

Geopolitical Shocks and Resource Planning

Sechin’s emphasis on the sensitivity of energy markets to geopolitical shocks, coupled with his critique of policymakers prioritizing “headlines over balanced resource planning,” underscores a critical vulnerability. This perspective highlights the need for a more strategic and long-term approach to energy policy that considers both supply security and geopolitical realities, rather than short-term political expediency. The ongoing interplay between energy markets, mineral supply chains, and military budgets, as outlined by Sechin, points to a complex and volatile global environment where integrated resource planning is paramount to mitigate risks and ensure stability.